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News

Predicted deaths from mesothelioma

HSE InfoLine : 05 December, 2003  (Company News)
The Health and Safety Executive today published updated statistics predicting the future numbers of people likely to die in Britain as a result of mesothelioma, a form of cancer caused by asbestos.
The Health and Safety Executive today published updated statistics predicting the future numbers of people likely to die in Britain as a result of mesothelioma, a form of cancer caused by asbestos.

These statistics, put together using the latest modelling techniques, suggest the annual number of deaths will peak at a lower level than previously predicted (published in 1995), and will peak sooner. The number of mesothelioma deaths in Great Britain (males and females of all ages) is now predicted to peak somewhere between 1,950 and 2,450 annually. The peak is expected between the years 2011 and 2015.

Previously published projections were restricted to men below age 90. Making the same restriction to the current model suggests a peak of between 1,650 and 2,100 deaths, between the years 2011 and 2015.

This updates a projection made in 1995 which suggested an annual peak of between 2,700 and 3,300 deaths around the year 2020.

HSE's Senior Statistician John Hodgson said: 'Previous projections have been based on a rather simple statistical model in which mesothelioma deaths were related to age and date of birth. More recent data suggests a different and more complex model is needed to account for the changing pattern of asbestos exposure. This latest analysis suggests a lower estimated peak for mesothelioma deaths than predicted in 1995, occurring sooner. But the total numbers are still substantial.'
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