Free Newsletter
Register for our Free Newsletters
Newsletter
Zones
Advanced Composites
LeftNav
Aerospace
LeftNav
Amorphous Metal Structures
LeftNav
Analysis and Simulation
LeftNav
Asbestos and Substitutes
LeftNav
Associations, Research Organisations and Universities
LeftNav
Automation Equipment
LeftNav
Automotive
LeftNav
Biomaterials
LeftNav
Building Materials
LeftNav
Bulk Handling and Storage
LeftNav
CFCs and Substitutes
LeftNav
Company
LeftNav
Components
LeftNav
Consultancy
LeftNav
View All
Other Carouselweb publications
Carousel Web
Defense File
New Materials
Pro Health Zone
Pro Manufacturing Zone
Pro Security Zone
Web Lec
Pro Engineering Zone
 
 
 
News

Upset frequency higher compared with baseball, hockey, and basketball, and football

Boston University : 06 January, 2006  (Technical Article)
A scientific measure of sporting competitiveness shows that soccer is the most
Professor Sidney Redner wanted some real-world data to test a model he had developed to explore the statistical probability of winners and losers in human interactions. He used win-loss records from professional team sports as the data set, which now may spark a global barroom debate over which sport is historically most “competitive” based on the statistical likelihood of upsets.

Crunching a century’s worth of more than 300,000 games in the National Football League, the National Basketball Association, the National Hockey League, Major League Baseball, and the English Football Association, showed that the latter, soccer to Americans, is the most “competitive” sport where underdogs won 45% of the time.

Baseball was next with 44%, then hockey with 41.5%, basketball with 36.5%, and American football least the competitive with an upset frequency of 36.4%. Trends in recent decades, however, show baseball and soccer trading places, and football nearly catching up with hockey and basketball in unpredictability.

“We propose(d) a single quantity, the frequency of upsets, as an index for quantifying the predictability, and hence the competitiveness of sports games,” Redner wrote with his colleagues, his BU graduate student Frederico Vazquez, and researcher Eli Ben-Naim of the Los Alamos National Laboratory in New Mexico where Redner and Vazquez studied last year on a fellowship. “We demonstrated the utility of this measure via a comparative analysis that shows that soccer and baseball are the most competitive sports.”

Redner said the study was “somewhere between being serious and a lark,” but that his colleagues realized that sports data could inform the theoretical predictions from their abstract model. While likely of little use to bettors seeking an edge, he said, “We learned which league would then be the most interesting to watch.”
Bookmark and Share
 
Home I Editor's Blog I News by Zone I News by Date I News by Category I Special Reports I Directory I Events I Advertise I Submit Your News I About Us I Guides
 
   Â© 2012 NewMaterials.com
Netgains Logo