STEEL PRODUCTION UPDATE
11 February 2005 - MEPS (International)

Crude steel production in the enlarged EU-25 is expected to be finalised at 193 million tonnes in 2004. This represents a 9.7 million tonne (5.3 percent) hike on the previous year's outturn. Supply from the original EU-15 is likely to be concluded just 4.9 percent higher. Clearly, the new entrants will have performed better than the fifteen member states.

An 11 percent jump in steel production will be reported for the remaining European countries - up from 28.7 million tonnes in 2003 to 31.85 million tonnes over the past twelve months. A major proportion of the gain came from the integrated ironmaking process.

The steelmakers of the former USSR will be responsible for lifting year on year output by more than 6 million tonnes in 2004. Most of this 5.7 percent gain occurred through improvement in output from the blast furnace/oxygen convertor process.

Steel manufacturing in the NAFTA region will be up by 9.7 million tonnes in 2004 compared to the outturn in 2003. This increase of almost 8 percent has been obtained by a combination of increased local demand and a restriction on the volume of imports into the area.

The steel makers in South America continue to lift output at a solid rate. We expect production in 2004 to reach 46 million tonnes - 3.15 million tonnes (7.5 percent) above the year earlier figure. Both local and export demand have been firm over the past twelve months.

Africa is the only region which will not record a substantial rise in steel making in 2004 compared to the year earlier figure. A quite modest gain is likely to be reported when the statistics are finalised.

Steel production in the Middle East will be 5.5 percent (0.75 million tonnes) up in 2004 compared to the previous twelve months. All the increase will take place in the Iranian steel sector. Output in the other main producing nations of the region will be steady.

Asian crude steel production in 2004 will be approximately 55 million tonnes up on the year earlier figure. This equates to an increase of 12 percent over the period. Most of the advance has occurred in the integrated blast furnace/oxygen convertor process. Steelmakers in China have been responsible for a significant proportion of this escalation.

No significant improvement in steel output has been recorded in Australia or
New Zealand over the past twelve months.

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