ASIAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER 2004

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ASIAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER 2004
01 October 2004 - MEPS (International)

Our forecasts for flat products in the period to September turned out to be lower than the actual figures recorded. This has not only been a surprise for us but also for many of the steel producers. Profit upgrades have been announced by the major Asian steel mills in recent weeks as a result of these higher prices. Rising scrap costs in mid year put upward pressure on prices. Consequently, some of our predicted values for flat products were below the figures actually negotiated. Scrap prices are now in decline once again.

Substantial price increases in the flat products category have been put in place over the past two months in China, Japan and South Korea. The mills in Taiwan are expected to follow suit next month. Chinese demand continues to grow. Japanese consumption from the automotive, electrical machinery and construction sectors is booming. Import volumes are down in Taiwan and South Korea. All this bodes well for steel prices to the end of the year.

The price rises have been more modest than in the US and Europe. Consequently, we envisage a slower decline in selling values in the first three quarters of 2005. The continued strength in the economic performances of China and Japan should obviate any significant slackening of demand for flat steel in the region.

Our previous price forecasts for September in the long products segment were broadly in line with the actual figures. Chinese market prices have climbed as market sentiment improves. Japanese consumption is steady. A weak building sector is keeping the lid on values in South Korea. No upward price pressure is being exerted in the Taiwanese market.

MEPS forecasts to September 2005 remain in place - indicating a steady decline for most product categories after the turn of the year. An unexpected jump in the prices for reinforcing bar occurred in China in September, mainly as a result of higher scrap figures in mid year and a tightening of the supply situation due to mill closures. This trend may be reversed next month now that scrap charges are in decline.

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