NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER 2004

Main Menu | News By Date | News By Supplier | News By Category | About Us

NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR SEPTEMBER 2004
03 October 2004 - MEPS (International)

Over the past few months our forecasts for flat products have been lower than the actual negotiated figures. This has not only been a surprise to us but also to most steel producers. We have seen profit upgrades from many of the major North American steel mills in recent weeks as a result of the higher than expected prices obtained in the market. Rising scrap costs over the period changed market sentiment.

A large percentage of production is via the mini-mill route. Consequently, scrap costs have a significant effect on selling prices in the flat products categories through the implementation of scrap surcharges. These have increased by up to $US150 per tonne for the electric steelmakers in the last two months to September. The integrated mills are imposing more modest scrap surcharges but increasing basis prices by substantial amounts as they follow their competitors upwards.

Strip mill low transaction values have moved up in the range $US50 to 106 per tonne since July due to a combination of tight supply and higher mill input costs. Scrap surcharges are expected to move into reverse in November and steel prices are likely to return, in December, to just above the previous highs achieved in July. The plate market is even more buoyant. Demand is very strong and supply restricted. Transaction prices jumped higher than anyone could have anticipated. However, a decrease is predicted in November as scrap surcharges decline.

We anticipate a steady decline in prices through 2005 after the downward adjustment in November and December. Our predictions could, however, be upset if scrap prices soar upwards once again.

Higher scrap charges have had little impact on steel prices in the long products sector over the past two months. This is because commercial and industrial construction has failed to recover in the region. Major projects are being cancelled or put on hold. Demand for steel is slowing down and the threat from imports is always in the background.

http://www.meps.co.uk

About: MEPS (International)
MEPS (International) LTD is a leading consultancy company operating in the steel sector worldwide. The organisation was formed in 1979. Over the years we have undertaken a wide range of studies covering all aspects of the global steel scene. Our independence is the cornerstone of the business.

The steel industry is the nucleus of our business. From the core activity we provide a range of services and advice to clients through our multi-disciplinary team of consultants. The areas in which our organisation has built up considerable expertise are highlighted below:

Steel Market Prices
Steel Market Trends
Steel Market Distribution
Steel Manufacturing Costs
Technological Trends in Manufacture
Raw Materials
Steel Trade
Steel Products
Steel Consuming Industries

More News:
  • For October 2004
  • From MEPS (International)
  • For Consultancy