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NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2004
In the flat products category, US distributors are over stocked and all speculative purchasing has ceased. Canadian activity is also subdued. Published energy surcharges are likely to increase in November but these will be difficult to realise. This month's strip mill product prices turned out to be lower than we predicted in September due to a combination of weaker demand in the market, marginally lower scrap surcharges and increased import threat. Auto demand will be reduced up to the end of the year. Better availability of material from offshore sources and Mexico will impact on selling values for the next few months. We envisage further decreases in domestic strip mill prices up to the end of the year and beyond - assuming stable scrap surcharges. Quarto plate prices are also likely to slip but at a much slower rate compared to strip products. Real demand is good. Availability is restricted. The modest decline in price forecast for the next twelve months is the result of the prospects of lower scrap costs and an increase in competition from foreign supplies. The US commercial construction activity is weak in the long products sector. Canadian building activity continues to slow. This is the backdrop for a steady decline in prices in this region for most product categories. Actual transaction prices in October were broadly in line with our forecasts. With decreasing demand through the Winter period, we expect prices to drift downwards - assuming scrap costs remain reasonably stable at current levels. Foreign competition is growing. This will add to the negative pressure on prices. A degree of inventory building is also taking place. Source: MEPS - STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)
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