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ASIAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR OCTOBER 2004
Average prices rose in October in all the flat product categories. The improvements in hot rolled coil/plate and hot dipped galvanised coil were slightly below our expectations. For the other products, ours and the actual figures matched. Over the next two months we anticipate further positive movement in prices. Demand is quite firm. It is difficult to assess the mood in China at the moment and changes in availability could occur quite quickly due to the new import and export situation that is developing. In the near term we envisage average prices in Asia holding up quite well in negotiations into the early part of 2005. Henceforth, a modest slide in prices is forecast as supply catches up with real demand from the market place. The MEPS estimates for long products made for October, last month, matched the outturn in this region for bar and rod products. The $US20 per tonne improvement in reinforcing bars was greater than we anticipated. We maintain our forecasts for most product types. This is for a slow but steady decrease in price over the coming months. The timing of our predicted decline varies, dependant upon the product. Source: MEPS - STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)
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