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EU AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR NOVEMBER 2004
The EU producers intend to raise flat products basis values on all products for deliveries in the first quarter. We expect to be reporting price hikes next month in the range 3 to 5% on transaction values. Plate remains the strongest product with booming home and export sales for the mills. Further modest rises are anticipated in January 2005. We believe that the market will stay firm into the Spring of next year before deteriorating steadily over the next few months. Our forecast figures, this month are above those in October due to the continued firm demand from line pipe producers and shipbuilders. We now expect the price hike for deliveries in the first trimester of 2005 to be in the region of €30 per tonne when all deals are completed in the strip mill segment. Consumption is forecast to stay solid in the short term. The threat from imports remains quite meagre over the next few months. In the long products category, bar prices have come under negative pressure in recent weeks. It has been most noticeable in the rebar segment. Further, but more modest decreases are predicted through the Winter period. For all other long products the actual November figures were broadly in line with our estimates last month. We retain our forecasts for the year ahead at similar values to those in the previous tables. This equates to a steady decline in prices during the first trimester of 2005 before levelling out in Spring and Summer. Our forecast indices are based on a constant US dollar exchange rate into the future. However, a recent decline in the US dollar value against most major currencies has translated into increased figures in all our Carbon Steel Price Forecasts for November - to a greater or lesser degree, depending upon region. This is expected to also impact on the December values. Source: MEPS - STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)
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