NORTH AMERICAN AVERAGE CARBON STEEL PRICE FORECAST FOR DECEMBER 2004
11 January 2005 - MEPS (International)

In the flat products category, inventories in the US are nearly double the figure recorded at this time last year. Canadian market activity remains subdued. Consequently, we forecast a continued slow decrease in transaction values over the next twelve months in the strip mill sector. We have reports that discounts are being given on published scrap surcharges in the US. Canadian supply is now plentiful from both local and overseas sources. All the above factors reinforce our belief that the price situation will continue to move downwards in the coming months.

Plate values are much firmer. Our forecasts in December still indicate a slow but steady decline commencing next Spring.

In the long products class, demand is improving in the US in some but not all segments of the construction industry. Canadian building activity is dull. These features were already built into our forecast of a price slippage for all four product categories over the Winter period. Price consolidation and, in some cases, small improvements are still anticipated through the Spring and Summer of 2005.

Source: MEPS - STEEL PRICES ON-LINE (regional steel price tables & forecasts)

http://www.meps.co.uk

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