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STEEL PRODUCTION RECORD WILL BE BEATEN AGAIN IN 2005
World crude steel production in 2004 will be close to 1050 million tonnes - an increase of 85 million tonnes (8.8 percent) on the figure recorded in the previous twelve months - following rises of 6.2 and 6.7 percent in the preceding two years. In 2005 we forecast global steel output at near to 1100 million tonnes - another record total. We expect a modest improvement in the EU-25 member states. The import threat is likely to increase, attracted by high domestic prices when measured in US dollar values. Led by the Turkish steel sector, we anticipate a 5 percent increase in steel supply from the mills in the other European nations in 2005. New capacity should ensure this higher volume. In the former USSR increased productive capability should also underpin a rise in steel manufacturing in 2005. Firm local demand will provide the backdrop for the improvement. Small gains are also anticipated for the steel sector in the NAFTA region. Demand should pick up within the area. Moreover, the weak US dollar exchange rate may mitigate against an upsurge in import volumes. A 5 percent gain is forecast for steelmaking in the South American region over the next twelve months. New capacity is being added. Home demand is improving. These factors should support the predicted expansion. We envisage only a small rise in steel supply from the African producers in 2005, due to weak local demand in many parts of the region. Solid growth in steel manufacture is anticipated in 2005 in the Middle East. This should be reinforced from better consumption in the region coupled with expanded capacity in Iran, in particular. Chinese steel output is scheduled to reach more than 300 million tonnes in 2005. New plant and equipment is already in place to meet that target. Restrictions in output may be put in place for supply of some long products. Import volumes will reduce dramatically from the levels in 2004 as domestic supply becomes available. Japanese steel output is not expected to increase due to the threat of imports from the region and the loss of exports, particularly to China. Domestic demand should hold up. In the rest of Asia, modest gains are anticipated. Suppliers in this sub region will also suffer from the threat of imports of long products from China. Little change is expected in Oceania in 2005. Source: MEPS - World Steel Outlook
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