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IISI SHORT RANGE OUTLOOK
04 October 2004 - International Iron and Steel Institute
| The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has issued its Short Range Outlook for the Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel Products in 2005. The outlook is in two parts: Global Economic Outlook and the Global Steel Outlook. |
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has issued its Short Range Outlook for the Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel Products in 2005. The outlook is in two parts: Global Economic Outlook and the Global Steel Outlook. Global Economic Outlook The world’s economy is growing at its fastest pace in 15 years. Growth has been stimulated by the upswing in Asia and the USA. IISI expects the world economy to expand by 4.7% in 2004 and 3.4% in 2005. However, a serious rise in the price of oil and commodities could dampen projected economic growth. Table 1: GDP Forecasts – 2004-2005
2004 2005
OECD IISI OECD IISI
Brazil 3.3 4.0 3.5 3.7
China 8.3 8.6 7.8 8.0
EU-25 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4
India 6.8 7.5 6.0 8.0
Japan 3.0 4.4 2.8 2.0
Russia 7.0 6.6 5.8 5.0
South Korea 5.6 5.2 5.9 4.7
Turkey 5.2 6.0 5.2 6.5
USA 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.7 Global Steel Outlook
China continues to lead global steel growth with both production and consumption rising. However, the tightening measures implemented by the government are aimed at moderating this growth.
The Japanese economy is moving into a growth path. Steel demand is expected to grow in Japan by 4.5% in 2004. Demand is also strong in the USA. European steel markets are also showing signs of improvement.
IISI expects steel consumption (per capita) in Latin America to increase by 6.4% in 2004, thus recovering to the peak achieved in the 1980s. The growth in this region has been led by Argentina and Brazil.
Table 2: Apparent Steel Consumption for 2003 (actual), 2004 (estimate) and 2005 (forecast)
2003 2004e 2005f Δ mmt %
EU-25 158.8 164.1 167.9 3.8 2.3
Other Europe 23.6 25.1 26.8 1.7 6.8
CIS 44.2 45.4 47.8 2.4 5.3
NAFTA 133.5 145.8 150.2 4.34 3.0
Central & South America 28.2 32.4 34.2 1.8 5.6
Africa/Middle East 42.4 44.9 46.6 1.7 3.8
Japan 73.4 76.8 76.9 0.1 0.1
South Korea 45.4 47.4 48.4 1.0 2.1
India 30.3 32.3 34.5 2.2 6.8
China 232.4 263.0 280-290 17-27 6.5-10.3
Other Asia 70.4 72.8 74.5 1.7 2.3
World 882.6 950.1 987.8-997.8 37.7-47.7 3.9-5.0
World excluding China 650.2 687.1 707.8 20.7 3.0
http://www.worldsteel.org
About: International Iron and Steel Institute
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) aims to establish steel as a major foundation of a sustainable world. For the world steel industry this means valuing the interdependence of environmental, social and economic aspects in all decision making, with the aim of improving life for everyone, now, and for generations to come. IISI was founded in 1967. It is a non-profit research organisation with headquarters in Brussels, Belgium. IISI is one of the largest and most dynamic industry associations and serves as a world forum for the international steel industry. A sustainable world steel industry could not be achieved without the active participation of IISI's membership. IISI currently has a membership of more than 115 steel producing companies and over 60 national and regional steel federations and steel research organisations. The members come from more than 50 countries around the world. The countries in which IISI member companies are located account for over three-quarters of total world steel production. Nearly all the world's major steel producers are members of the Institute. Both publicly and privately owned enterprises, using both basic oxygen or electric arc process routes, are members. |
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