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News

IISI Short Range Outlook

World Steel Association : 04 October, 2004  (New Product)
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has issued its Short Range Outlook for the Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel Products in 2005. The outlook is in two parts: Global Economic Outlook and the Global Steel Outlook.
The International Iron and Steel Institute (IISI) has issued its Short Range Outlook for the Apparent Consumption of Finished Steel Products in 2005. The outlook is in two parts: Global Economic Outlook and the Global Steel Outlook.

Global Economic Outlook

The world’s economy is growing at its fastest pace in 15 years. Growth has been stimulated by the upswing in Asia and the USA. IISI expects the world economy to expand by 4.7% in 2004 and 3.4% in 2005. However, a serious rise in the price of oil and commodities could dampen projected economic growth.

Table 1: GDP Forecasts – 2004-2005
2004 2005
OECD IISI OECD IISI
Brazil 3.3 4.0 3.5 3.7
China 8.3 8.6 7.8 8.0
EU-25 2.1 2.3 2.6 2.4
India 6.8 7.5 6.0 8.0
Japan 3.0 4.4 2.8 2.0
Russia 7.0 6.6 5.8 5.0
South Korea 5.6 5.2 5.9 4.7
Turkey 5.2 6.0 5.2 6.5
USA 4.7 4.4 3.7 3.7

Global Steel Outlook
China continues to lead global steel growth with both production and consumption rising. However, the tightening measures implemented by the government are aimed at moderating this growth.
The Japanese economy is moving into a growth path. Steel demand is expected to grow in Japan by 4.5% in 2004. Demand is also strong in the USA. European steel markets are also showing signs of improvement.
IISI expects steel consumption (per capita) in Latin America to increase by 6.4% in 2004, thus recovering to the peak achieved in the 1980s. The growth in this region has been led by Argentina and Brazil.

Table 2: Apparent Steel Consumption for 2003 (actual), 2004 (estimate) and 2005 (forecast)
2003 2004e 2005f Δ mmt %
EU-25 158.8 164.1 167.9 3.8 2.3
Other Europe 23.6 25.1 26.8 1.7 6.8
CIS 44.2 45.4 47.8 2.4 5.3
NAFTA 133.5 145.8 150.2 4.34 3.0
Central & South America 28.2 32.4 34.2 1.8 5.6
Africa/Middle East 42.4 44.9 46.6 1.7 3.8
Japan 73.4 76.8 76.9 0.1 0.1
South Korea 45.4 47.4 48.4 1.0 2.1
India 30.3 32.3 34.5 2.2 6.8
China 232.4 263.0 280-290 17-27 6.5-10.3
Other Asia 70.4 72.8 74.5 1.7 2.3
World 882.6 950.1 987.8-997.8 37.7-47.7 3.9-5.0
World excluding China 650.2 687.1 707.8 20.7 3.0

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